StressSignal Risk Desk
Do not force one number into a conclusion. Read trend, confirmation, and limits together.
First see whether the current state is calm, watch, warming, or spreading. Do not rush into causes.
Click the names at the top of the home page or indicator table to see why they are elevated.
When a signal looks alarming, read the related note before treating it as system risk.
Suggested
Read: this looks more like local repricing. Watch the event path and whether sentiment cools.
Read: equity volatility is starting to connect with system pressure, so the defensive read matters more.
| Signal line | Key indicators | Healthy | Watch | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity volatility | VIX / VXN / RVX / VXD | Percentile < 50% | Percentile 50%-80% | Percentile > 80% |
| Term structure | VIX/VXV Term Proxy | Positive or slightly positive | Near 0 or mildly inverted | Clearly inverted |
| System stress | STLFSI4 / NFCI | Percentile < 50% | Percentile 50%-80% | Percentile > 80% |
Note: percentiles use the past year of observations. Healthy / watch / risk are practical zones for scanning, not exact trading thresholds.
VIX prices expected volatility over the next 30 days. It does not tell you direction by itself.
STLFSI4 and NFCI are confirmation tools. For intraday pressure, rely more on the equity-volatility layer.
News, expiry, and liquidity can all create one-day moves that do not become a regime change.
Disclaimer: this page is for market observation only, not investment advice. Risk note: indicators help you observe market conditions. They are not trading advice. Always add context, events, and position risk.
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