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StressSignal Risk Desk

Sentiment and positioning

AAII is closer to a retail sentiment thermometer. NAAIM is closer to actual active-manager exposure. Together they separate real optimism, fake optimism, and real caution.

Tail riskSentiment & exposureFear & GreedGlobal risk

Read words and exposure together

Survey data tells you how people feel. Exposure data tells you whether risk was actually cut. A divergence is often more useful than either number alone.

Disclaimer: this page is for market observation only, not investment advice. Risk note: indicators help you observe market conditions. They are not trading advice. Always add context, events, and position risk.

Sentiment snapshot

aaii-bullish

AAII Bullish

Watch

Latest

34.7

August 13, 2026

1Y percentile

41%

Weekly

5D -1.5820D +2.6
Open indicator

aaii-bearish

AAII Bearish

Watch

Latest

37.9

August 13, 2026

1Y percentile

43%

Weekly

5D +0.6920D -11.89
Open indicator

aaii-neutral

AAII Neutral

Under pressure

Latest

27.4

August 13, 2026

1Y percentile

84%

Weekly

5D +0.8920D +9.29
Open indicator

aaii-bull-bear-spread

AAII Bull-Bear Spread

Watch

Latest

-3.2

August 13, 2026

1Y percentile

43%

Weekly

5D -2.2720D +14.5
Open indicator

naaim-exposure

NAAIM Exposure

Warming

Latest

86.82

June 3, 2026

1Y percentile

55%

Weekly

5D -6.9720D -9.19
Open indicator

naaim-exposure-ma4

NAAIM Exposure 4W MA

Watch

Latest

86.14

June 3, 2026

1Y percentile

41%

Weekly

5D +1.9420D -9.29
Open indicator

AAII and NAAIM

Weekly sentiment and active exposure. Useful for direction, not intraday triggers.

No history in this range yet. It will appear after sync or reviewed import.

Data update note

Charts use the latest processed readings. Daily indicators move faster; weekly indicators are better for confirming trends.

Shortest reading path

1

Start with Bull-Bear Spread

See whether retail sentiment is net optimistic or net pessimistic.

2

Check NAAIM

See whether active managers actually raised or reduced equity exposure.

3

Finish with the 4W average

Filter one-week noise and confirm whether positioning is persistent.

Tail riskFear & Greed

Data series

AAII_BULLISHAAII_BEARISHAAII_NEUTRALNAAIM_EXPOSURE